Back in 2018, a mere eight words to energize a Labour conference demonstrating the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with wild cheering as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.
During that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.
The Shift in Position and Closed Issues
In the years since, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.
Like his predecessor, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite polling evidence indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.
Pressure Building on Europe
Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if EU relations may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.
And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.
Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas
Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing young people can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.
The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.
Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism
However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.
Reportedly that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.
- First, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.
An Alarming Document and Geopolitical Calculations
This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains only one reference to Britain, placed beside a suggestion that the US government may interfere in British politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.
However, instead of concluding that this renders America an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Leadership Speculation & The Ghost from the Past
This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch to become leader but merely an attempt to preserve the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further on Europe.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Obvious Risk & A Wise Memory
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters are to be found.
It would be wise of him to recall the effect that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.
